Is Now a Good Time to Build in South East Queensland?

Right now, many property owners and investors are asking the same question: is this really the right time to build?

With the Iran conflict pushing volatility through global energy markets, and the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining elevated interest rates, hesitation is understandable. The headlines are loud, and uncertainty naturally affects confidence.

But if we step back from the news cycle and look at the data, a different pattern begins to emerge.

History shows that residential construction does not simply stop because the world feels unstable. It adjusts, it becomes more price-sensitive, but it continues. Periods of uncertainty and undersupplied growth historically offer an opportunity for long-term decisions to be made.

That matters in South East Queensland, where population growth, housing undersupply, and long-term planning continue to support the need for new homes.

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The current environment is real, but not unique

The current geopolitical environment has added a layer of uncertainty through global energy markets, with oil price movements influencing inflation and broader economic sentiment.

At the same time, Australia’s interest rate environment remains tight, with the RBA cash rate at 4.10% as of March 2026, and inflation still sitting above the long-term target range. These conditions are significant, but they are not new.

Australia has built through oil shocks, global conflicts, recessions, the Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19 and multiple rate cycles. Each period influenced confidence, but none noticeably prevented Australians from building new homes.

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What the historical construction data tells us

Looking at previous periods of disruption provides useful perspective.

During COVID-19, one of the most significant disruptions in recent times, national dwelling commencements in the September quarter of 2020 declined only 0.8% to 42,545 dwellings. More notably, new private-sector house commencements increased by 4.0% during that same period.

Even under extreme uncertainty, detached housing construction remained resilient.

During the more recent interest rate tightening cycle, activity softened but did not disappear. In the December quarter of 2022, total dwelling commencements were 41,374, down 6.7% for the quarter. This reflected a slowdown but still represented a substantial level of activity.

More recently, the market has shown its ability to adapt. In the September quarter of 2025, total dwelling commencements rose 6.6% to 48,778 dwellings, with private-sector house commencements up 6.9%.

On the approvals side, January 2026 data shows private-sector house approvals continuing to edge upward, even as higher density approvals fluctuate.

The consistent takeaway is clear: uncertainty can influence timing and sentiment, but it has not stopped Australian families from building.

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Why this matters in South East Queensland

South East Queensland is not just any market, it is a growth market.

Queensland’s population reached approximately 5.67 million as at June 2025, with strong growth driven by both overseas migration and continued interstate movement into the state.

Looking ahead, the ShapingSEQ 2023 Regional Plan projects that the region will grow to around six million people by 2046, requiring close to 900,000 additional homes.

At a national level, this supply challenge is also being recognised. The National Housing Accord targets 1.2 million new homes over five years, reflecting the scale of demand across Australia.

Recent data reinforces Queensland’s role in meeting that demand. In January 2026, the state accounted for over 21% of all Australian dwelling approvals, with approvals trending higher compared to the same time the previous year.

This is not the profile of a market standing still, it is one continuing to respond to underlying demand.

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Considering timing in an uncertain market

In uncertain conditions, it is natural for many to consider delaying decisions.

For some, that may be the right approach. However, in growth markets like South East Queensland, it is also worth considering how factors such as population growth, land availability and construction costs may influence outcomes over the longer term.

Uncertainty can shift short-term sentiment, but it does not remove the structural need for housing.

As with any major decision, building or investing should be considered in the context of individual financial circumstances, risk tolerance and long-term objectives.

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The long-term view

The Iran conflict and current interest rate environment are enough to make anyone cautious. But cautious is not the same as inactive.

If history tells us anything, it is that residential construction in Australia continues through periods of disruption. It may change pace, it may become more considered but it keeps moving; particularly in regions where population growth and housing demand remain strong.

And that is exactly what continues to underpin South East Queensland.

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WRITTEN BY

Cody Goodwin

Director, NUVO Homes Residential P/L

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Information Sources

APNews – Global Economic Conditions & Market Impacts (2026)

APNews – Global Oil Market & Iran Conflict Coverage (2026)

AustralianBureau of Statistics (ABS) – Building Activity, Australia (September2020)

AustralianBureau of Statistics (ABS) – Building Activity, Australia (December2022)

AustralianBureau of Statistics (ABS) – Building Activity, Australia (September2025 – Latest Release)

AustralianBureau of Statistics (ABS) – Building Approvals, Australia (January2026)

AustralianBureau of Statistics (ABS) – National, State and Territory Population(June 2025)

AustralianGovernment – Federal Budget 2025–26: Housing Measures & NationalHousing Accord

QueenslandGovernment – ShapingSEQ 2023 Regional Plan

QueenslandGovernment Statistician’s Office (QGSO) – Building Approvals,Queensland (January 2026)

ReserveBank of Australia (RBA) – Cash Rate Decision (March 2026)

ReserveBank of Australia (RBA) – Inflation Data (2026)

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